Prospector enters the Fuel Ethanol Industry
We built our first customized Fuel Ethanol plant model in mid-2018, and we began working with our first client late that same year. Our client, Show Me Ethanol (Carrollton, MO), made a presentation highlighting how Prospector was already adding value at the Fuel Ethanol Workshop and Conference in June 2019. We’re excited about the potential our software is demonstrating in this market, where efficient plant operations and a focus on productivity improvement drive profitability, and data-driven operational decisions are critical, every day.
Bonanza Associates was honored to be featured in an article in the July 2019 Ethanol Producer’s Magazine, the industry’s leading journal. We’re gearing up to be the industry leader for dynamic predictive process simulation in this market, leveraging our manufacturing roots and experiences from other market segments. Our goal is to work with plants who have a high level of motivation for improving productivity, whose leaders understand and appreciate the value of advanced manufacturing tools and techniques (like Lean Six Sigma), and want to take the next step towards “Smart Manufacturing”.
Prospector utilizes plant data of all types and from any source: historian, DCS, lab software, scheduling tools, recipe systems, Internet-based pricing databases, and even spreadsheets. Our customized mass and energy balance formulas convert that data into useful information, predicting future production levels, plant inventories, energy and raw material usage, and expected costs and profitability.
Productivity and profitability are increased as a result of better planning, communication, and collaboration across shifts and throughout the chain of command.
Below are some examples of how Prospector can add value for Fuel Ethanol plants:
A particular area of interest for Fuel Ethanol plants is planning and tracking the results of chemical trials. Because of the relatively young age of this market segment, there is a high level of interest in more effective yeasts and enzymes, and even improved strains of corn and milo feedstocks. Prospector can help plant managers dynamically predict the results of trials on all product streams (based on laboratory results or experience at other plants) and quantify the expected financial outcomes.
Another area of intense innovation is the development of new process equipment to diversify plant product mix and help insulate against commodity price swings. Once our detailed mass and energy balance is customized for YOUR plant, it can be used to accurately predict the plant-wide implications of a proposed new process. That includes changes in the water balance, energy requirements, carbon intensity, and the proportional ‘split’ of raw material (e.g. corn) that winds up in the different product streams.
Because it is a highly interactive dynamic modeling tool, users can simulate how the new process would impact operations under a variety of conditions: different run rates, going into and coming out of outages, doing maintenance ‘on the fly’, and so on. Users can also quickly run multiple scenarios based on different pricing assumptions, both for raw materials and products, and instantly see the impact on profitability.
It truly bridges the gaps among Engineering, Operations, and Finance responsibilities. Our tool is ideal for Plant Managers, investors, and owners to make data-driven decisions regarding investment opportunities and risks at a given plant, or across multiple plants.
Prospector is an ‘operations-directed’ model. It is user-friendly and intuitive; our clients find it easy to build and edit daily and weekly Operating Plans as a guide to plant operations. Having a single Plan enhances communication and coordination across shifts and throughout the chain of command.
The automated Reports in Prospector provide daily summaries of Production quantities, Financial data, Carbon Intensity scores, and key indicators of plant-wide efficiency (productivity), like gallons of ethanol per bushel and pounds of steam per gallon. The Reports automatically bring in Actual data as it becomes available and allows users to compare what was planned with what actually happened.
Unplanned outages and other upset conditions can be handled more effectively with our mass and energy balance tools, helping the plant return to normal operating conditions much more quickly and with minimal loss of productivity. It is a great Training tool as well, allowing Operators to simulate upset conditions and test different responses, immediately getting feedback on how the plant would react, and the cost impact of alternate decisions.
All our clients use Prospector for planning and executing major maintenance outages. These events occur infrequently, and therefore by definition every operator is out of their ‘comfort zone’ regarding managing rates and inventory levels. They are also high risk and high cost events for any plant, with extra expenses due to outside services, lost production, and implications for customers and logistics/transportation providers.
Prospector allows plant personnel to plan every detail well in advance of the outage. The famous quote from Eisenhower is particularly relevant: “In battle, a Plan is useless – but Planning is essential.” Using our software to evaluate numerous scenarios (length of downtime events, sequencing the start up of equipment, etc.) well in advance results in improved performance during the Outage, when things invariably don’t go as planned.
Users can use Prospector’s Compare Plans feature to optimize the Outage Plan, making data-driven decisions based on predicted costs and profitability of alternate Plans.
All the data used to demonstrate compliance with Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) regulations is being collected in our software. It has the capability of automatically generating monthly compliance reports, as well as ‘on demand.’
In addition, clients can use the model to predict the impact on LCFS of process changes, new equipment, and alternate co-product streams.
For plants that make different grades of Ethanol, or grain products, Prospector can greatly improve the efficiency of grade transitions. This is a major application in the Pulp and Paper segment. Minimizing ‘twilight’ production and quickly achieving the desired quality specifications is made possible by giving Operators better tools to plan and manage rate and inventory swings in the plant.
Managers can use the tool to identify ‘best practices’ among shifts and share the learnings through Training. Prospector is an excellent tool for tracking the longer term trends in the plant and alert Operators when grade change efficiencies change.
Prospector allows building Plans of up to a year in length, making it an excellent tool for longer term planning as plants consider alternate co-product recovery systems and overall production goals for the future. It helps highlight potential constraints in various process areas, and can assist in negotiations with utilities, raw materials, and logistics providers.
Simply having one Operating Plan for the week or month enhances cooperation and collaboration across departments, across shifts, and throughout the chain of command in large plants. Improved alignment with plant-wide financial and operational goals can lead to higher profitability and greater returns on existing assets.
Prospector has a number of tools that help large plants track trends and key ratios that indicate how efficiently a plant is operating.
Managers can use the tool to identify ‘best practices’ among shifts and share the learnings through Training. Prospector is an excellent tool for tracking the longer term trends in the plant and can alert Operators when productivity and/or efficiency indicators begin to change.
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instead of simply reacting to the past.
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